THE CLASSIFICATION APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABILITY OF TERRITORIAL SYSTEM STATE
M.Panasyuk, E.Pudovick
Kazan State University
E-mail: helly@ksu.ru
The analysis of parameters of a condition of territorial system and its dynamics concerns to number of fundamental problems of management of territory. The purposes of the decision of similar analytical tasks are in the order definitions of all controlling mechanism, providing a choice of optimum administrative decisions of the strategic plan. Quality of results of an estimation of dynamics of  condition determine in many respects efficiency of realization of such functions of territorial management, as coordination and regulation, monitoring  and forecasting.
In the modern geosystem theory problems of the analysis of dynamics of a condition and parameters of its stability are insufficiently developed as a whole. It can be seen in insufficient development of representations about system of indicators, methodical base etc. Basic part of methods is focused on construction of the summary (aggregated) estimated indicators and the analysis of their dynamic lines. It is necessary to note the hierarchical approach [4] which estimates a condition of geosystem on the basis of coordination of tendencies of dynamics of elements of geosystem and an environment at different levels of hierarchy etc.
The most widespread approach based on construction of summary indexes, has a number of basic lacks among which it is necessary to note:
1. 	 Impossibility of reception of quality standard of a state (transition from quantitative values individual and summary estimated indexes to conclusions about quality of a condition).
2. 	 Impossibility of determination borders of estimation-analytical levels of an estimation (high, average, low etc. levels of an estimation of a state).
3. 	 Difficulties of reception of conclusions of the qualitative plan about character of stability / instability of dynamics.
4. 	 Lacks  of aggregation of  individual indexes from the point of view of the decision of a problem of their comparability etc.
	The approach to the analysis of stability of a state  of territorial system offered by authors includes, as a rule, following stages: 
1. 	 Formation of set of individual estimated indicators, each of which characterizes separate sides of a condition of geosystem. 
The set of indicators is kept constant during all period for which the analysis of stability is conducted. It is necessary to solve problems of comparability of parameters of a different nature on the basis of their reduction uniform estimated quality. For this purpose such methods, as rank and mark estimations, normalization etc. are used.
2. 	 Construction of the aggregated estimations of conditions on each of the given periods of time. It is carried out, as a rule, on the basis of reception of the sums, the weighed sums and - or products of values of individual estimations.
3. 	 Analysis of dynamics of a condition and its stability on the basis of revealing трендов dynamics of summary estimations of a condition of geosystem.
In a basis of the offered classification approach to the analysis of dynamics of a condition of territorial system there is a statement that the parity(ratio) of classes and the subsets of the elements selected on the basis of values of given private(individual) indicators appropriate to them, characterizes the certain quality of its condition. The main difference of the considered approach is that a basis of an estimation is not summation of estimations of individual parameters, and the analysis of their distinctions, несхожести. It, in particular, in many respects removes a problem of validity of procedures aggregation (summation, weighing) diverse parameters.
The decision of problems of the analysis of stability within the framework of the given approach has a number of stages which  general and distinguished features in comparison with the previous approach:
1. 	 Definition of system of  individual estimated indicators. 
2. 	 Classification of elements of the given territorial system separately for all individual periods of time with the help of the formal procedures most frequently used in the analysis of geosystems [3], for example, of cluster-analysis (k-means clustering, hierarchical classification etc.), discriminant analysis, neural networks etc.
3. 	 Analysis of the classes / groups of elements received set. Reception of conclusions about presence, number and features of estimated levels (levels of quality evaluation). The analysis of subject - objective estimations. 
4. 	 Analysis of stability of dynamics of a condition of system by the analysis of transitions from a class to class. For this purpose maximum frequency of occurrence of a level of estimation, factors of frequency of transitions, stability of a level pay off etc.
Main principal features of the classification approach to an estimation of stability of a condition of territorial system are:
1. 	 Comparison of classification system as a whole with the certain quality of a condition (level of  estimation) of  systems.
2. 	 Connection of subjective and objective estimations in the classification analysis.
3.    Estimation of stability / stability on the basis of research of transitions from a class in class / group of elements.
At the analysis of stability of development the classification approach assumes performance of the following conditions:
- 	 Number of levels of  estimation should not vary during all period of observation, otherwise results of comparison of estimations of different years will be non-comparable. 
- 	 Classes / groups of analyzed elements of territorial system with different levels of an estimation form not crossed sets, i.e. the condition of each element has a unequivocal estimation.
- 	 Method of classification should be uniform for all intervals of time of the analyzed period without dependence from character of their dynamics.
The considered approach was successfully applied at the decision of problems of the analysis of stability of territorial system of  Republic of Tatarstan (RT), since 1998. (fig. 1, 2), including an estimation of stability of development of system of municipal formations, city settlements, the operative analysis of dynamics of a condition of social and economic system of republic, an estimation of competitive positions of Kazan, economic basis of economy of region etc.
At the analysis of stability of dynamics(changes) of regional system of RT 38 parameters which are shown in the seven subsystems (blocks) [2] describing the main features of region, including « Main economic parameters», "Demography", "Agriculture", "Finance", “Social sphere”, "Infrastructure" and "Ecology"  were included in structure of set of indicators.
The technique of the decision of analytical problems includes:
1.	Formation of rank estimations for each of the given analytical parameters - indicators of a state.
2.	Calculation of average rank estimations on parameters of subsystems.
3.	Calculation of a summary rank - sum of average ranks of blocks of parameters
4.	Grouping / classification of cities and areas by a parameter of a summary rank and a comparative estimation of a condition.
5.	The analysis of dynamics of levels of an estimation of a condition of regional system on years in the period 2000 - 2005 and obtaining conclusions about stability of a condition. 

One of the basic features of a technique of the analysis of stability of regional system RT is  its aiming on realization in GIS environment [1]. It in many respects has caused structure of system of indicators, measures and parameters of an estimation of stability. Realization of the approach in GIS environment leans on bases of the spatial data,  complex of GIS-maps and the specialized software package including both estimation-analytical procedures, and procedures of the GIS-analysis. Results of the decision of problems represent a complex of GIS-maps and explanatory documents. Thus, the given approach creates bases of development of special functions GIS for the decision of problems of monitoring and the analysis of sustainable development of territorial system. 

LITERATURE
1. Panasyuk M.V., Pudovick E.M., Zainullina S.F. Use of information technologies in the operative analysis of statistical data. // Questions of statistics. - 2004. - № 9. – pp.64 - 69.
2. Ratner N.M., Nesterenko O.N., Yatnov V.A., Kapustina L.M. Development of region: the methodical approach. - Ekaterinburg: Ural state econ.univ. - 1995. – 136p.
3. Tikunov V.S. Classification in geography: the Renaissance or withering? - M.-Smolensk: SHU publ. - 1997.-367p.
4. Hakimov E.M., Panasyuk M.V., Shagidullin R.R. Evolution of hierarchy of spatial systems. // Modern global and regional changes of geosystems. - Kazan. - 2004. – pp.613-614.

Stable, high
rather stable,  high
unstable,  high
stable, medium
rather stable, medium
unstable, medium
stable, low
rather stable, low
unstable, low

Factor of stability 
of estimation level

Estimation level

Fig. 1. Dynamics of a state of administrative areas RT in 2000 - 2005.

Stable, high
rather stable,  high
unstable,  high
stable, medium
rather stable, medium
stable, low
unstable, low

Factor of stability 
of estimation level

Estimation level

 Fig. 2. Dynamics of  a state of cities of RT in 2000 - 2005.